Who will be Downey's next mayor? It's complicated.

DOWNEY — With the dust from election night pretty much settled and swearing ins just a couple weeks away, it’s natural to start to think about who will be the next mayor and mayor pro tem of the city.

I’ll be honest – I see the mayoral title as mostly symbolic. The role allows most city councilmembers the chance to be the face of the city for a year; you get to run the meetings, cut some ribbons, give the state of the city address, etc. There are those rare occasions when a mayor may be faced with a crisis (e.g., a recession, the murder of a police officer, or a global pandemic), where they are forced to become a firm, steady hand and a guiding light; to prove their mettle as a leader in its truest form.

Similarly, the mayor pro tem is there to fill in when the mayor is not immediately available; there is slightly more exposure than a regular council member, but still not as much as mayor.

Usually, things play out something like this: The outgoing mayor takes a back seat, the Mayor Pro Tem takes the wheel, and either a veteran councilmember or a rookie now seasoned with a year or two at the dais rides shotgun as the next in line. Granted, it doesn’t always play out that way, but most times it’s a safe bet.

Downey Mayor Pro Tem Catherine Alvarez. (City of Downey photo)

This time around, however, the city council will find itself starting the year with a lot of uncertainty and variables to weigh and consider.

Let’s start with the obvious: Mayor Pro Tem Catherine Alvarez.

If you follow the suggested pattern, Alvarez would make sense to be mayor next year. In this scenario, however, I wouldn’t count on it.

Just the fact that Alvarez sits as the Mayor Pro Tem currently is a bit of a head scratcher. At the time of her appointment, she faced the first of two recall attempts. Controversy aside, it took a strange sequence of events to land her here (she won the bid in a 3-1-1 vote after Sean Ashton stepped down from the position prior to his official resignation from the council, Councilwoman Claudia M. Frometa was denied the spot, and Councilman Mario Trujillo declined the nomination).

But numbers aren’t on her side this time. To secure the mayorship and promote in the natural order, Alvarez would need three of four votes (District 1 will start off vacant due to Mayor Blanca Pacheco’s election to State Assembly). Two of those votes belong to Frometa and councilman-elect Hector Sosa, neither of which are friendly with Alvarez (both are supporters of her recall).

And even if she were able to sway two of her council colleagues, there’s also the issue of the recall election in January. If Alvarez were to become mayor and then be recalled, it makes an already embarrassing situation for the city that much more complicated; in addition to needing to start the process of finding her replacement, the city would also need to (again) appoint a mayor from a shrinking list of candidates.

Theoretically, there might be a slim chance that Councilman Trujillo makes a bid for the mayor seat, although he makes better sense for the position of Mayor Pro Tem; he’s the only current councilmember who has yet to serve in either role.

As previously stated, Trujillo had a chance earlier this year to serve as Mayor Pro Tem when Ashton gave it up, but declined. I suspect if given the opportunity again this time around, it will be a different story.

Should Trujillo serve as Mayor Pro Tem in 2023, it would line him up to be mayor in 2024; coincidentally (or not) an election year for him, which brings its own advantages.

The sole freshman, Hector Sosa should realistically be a non-starter in this conversation. He’s too new and needs to get some time under his belt. If there was even the smallest bit of consideration for either position, it would be as mayor pro tem with Frometa as mayor. Sosa and Frometa were aligned during the election, and I am positive their alliance will carry onto the council.

Lastly, Frometa already has experience as mayor, serving as such in 2021. With the impending departure of Pacheco, she will be the longest tenured, most experienced member of the council.

Frometa was denied the pro tem position on a 2-2-1 vote earlier this year when it was initially vacated. The two in opposition were Alvarez and Trujillo (who obviously still sit on the council), but part of me feels that that was then, and this is now. I don’t anticipate a 2-2 deadlock, and even if there is one, I can’t see it lasting long.

All things considered, I’m predicting that it will be Frometa, followed by Trujillo, that will lead the city in 2023 as mayor and mayor pro tem, respectively. Sosa will take his first year to learn the ropes, predictably under the guiding hand of Frometa (and the former mayors who endorsed him). And conversations about where Alvarez goes from here will be reserved for after the Jan. 31 recall election.