Downey faces vaccine shortage, study warns

DOWNEY — Downey faces a vaccine shortage under the state’s new distribution protocols, according to a report released Tuesday by Cogitativo, a data science company.

The report, “Underserved and Overlooked: Severe Vaccine Shortages In LA County’s Hardest-Hit Communities,” compares the new vaccine distribution strategy announced by state officials – which will set aside 40 percent of vaccine doses for disadvantaged communities in the lowest quartile of the Healthy Places Index (HPI) — with a more precise distribution model developed by Cogitativo that precisely quantifies risk down to the city level based on real clinical data and social determinants of health (SDOH), as well as peer-reviewed medical literature on Covid-19 and other coronaviruses.

The report is available online here.

Assuming an available supply of 6 million doses to demonstrate shortages that could take place over the next several months, the report simulates both approaches for L.A. County.

According to Cogitativo, the five cities in Los Angeles County at risk of the most severe vaccine deficits are:

1.) Whittier
2.) Pasadena
3.) Torrance
4.) West Covina
5.) Downey

Other key findings from the report include:

• 76% of cities in L.A. County are likely to see a vaccine shortage under the current California allocation approach.

• 90% of deficit-vulnerable cities in L.A. County under the current California allocation approach are communities of color.

• There will be a combined deficit of 1.5 million doses for deficit-vulnerable cities under the current California allocation approach.

• 141,446 more hospitalizations can be prevented by using a more precise distribution model based on real clinical data and SDOH compared to the current California allocation approach.

• 32,522 more lives can be saved by using a more precise distribution model based on real clinical data and SDOH compared to the current California allocation approach.

“Using HPI to set aside doses for underserved zip codes is an urgently needed change of policy, but it does not answer the question of exactly how many doses each one of those 400 zip codes needs,” said Gary Velasquez, CEO of Cogitativo. “We cannot put a needle in a zip code – we need to use real clinical data to determine the exact level of risk and need within these communities.”