A pope, an architect and Bob Dylan walk into the Academy Awards
Zoe Saldana sits as the first pick for the supporting actress Oscar.
Is there any such thing as “best actor” or “best director”?
In his acceptance speech, Sean Penn captured my views perfectly. “If there's one thing that actors know — it's that there is no such thing as 'best' in acting. And that's proven by these great actors that I was nominated with, as well as all those not nominated.”
Bradley Corbet, in his acceptance speech upon winning the Best Director award for The Brutalist at BAFTA said, “there’s no such thing as best director. It’s like a joke. But I’m very grateful to all.”
So how did this Best Actor and Oscar competition come to be?
The first Academy Award ceremony was created by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) as a public relations stunt to improve the image of the scandal-plagued Hollywood film industry and generate positive publicity around the movie business. MGM art director Cedric Gibbons sketched the figure of an impressively ripped knight as an art crusader for the award. The Academy didn't adopt the nickname Oscar until 1939. The nickname's origins aren't clear. Douglas Fairbanks hosted the Oscars at a private dinner at the Hollywood Roosevelt Hotel in 1929. Tickets were 5 dollars. Movie tickets were 25 cents at the time. 270 people attended. The winners were announced to the public three months in advance.
During that inaugural Academy Awards ceremony Charlie Chaplin, was set to make history by scooping up four trophies for his film The Circus (1928). The Academy stepped in and he was removed from the ballot. Instead, the Academy presented Chaplin with a Special Award “for acting, writing, directing, and producing The Circus.”
Chaplin did not attend but wired his appreciation. It wasn’t until 1954 that Walt Disney won four Oscars at the 26th Academy Awards in 1954. Both The Brutalist and Anora have a chance at doing that this year. If they win three, they join James Cameron, Francis Ford Coppola, Peter Jackson, Alfonso Cuarón, Richard Attenborough and Bong Joon-ho.
Today there are a host of global festivals and awards that lead up to the world’s most famous film awards. The 97th Academy Awards will take place in the Dolby Theatre at Ovation Hollywood on Sunday, March 2nd. It will be broadcast live on ABC and Hulu at 4 pm PST. Conan O’Brien is the host. The presenters include Emma Stone, Cillian Murphy, Robert Downey Jr, De’Vine Joy Randolph, Elle Fanning, John Lithgow, Whoppi Goldberg, Scarlet Johansson, and more.
It’s still a public relations extravaganza. Beyond the actual film productions, millions of dollars are spent promoting the films and the artists involved. There are the films themselves, the influence of other awards, the nominee's story, their interactions, and news stories that influence the ups and downs of the final winners.
There are now close to 11,000 global Academy members across 18 branches.
In the final ballot members can vote on the nominees in all of the 23 categories online. The nominee that gets 50 percent or more of the votes is the winner. For Best Picture, the process calls for preferential voting, ranking choices from 1 to 10 in preference.
Who would you vote for in the Oscars? Below are my perceptions, predictions and favorites on the top six awards.
TOP 3 PREDICTIONS (and Favorites*)
BEST PICTURE
Nothing is off the table in one of the most unpredictable awards seasons in recent memory. The top films in competition are: The Brutalist, Emilia Perez, Anora, Conclave, A Complete Unknown, Wicked, and I’m Still Here.
Anora
A New York exotic dancer falls for her client, a Russian oligarch’s son. They elope to Vegas. His parents don’t approve and set out to annul the marriage. It’s a fairytale story of hope and human connection. By winning the Palme D'Or at Cannes, Anora has been the early favorite. It bombed at the Golden Globes. Anora then won the Critics Choice, DGA, PGA, and WGA.
Only one film in history has failed to win the Oscar after that combination. That was Brokeback Mountain. It could be destined to be Best Picture.
Emilia Pérez
Emilia Pérez tells its story in Spanish in an operatic style through song and dance and unfolding complex characters. A powerful Mexican drug lord, played by Karla Sofía Gascón hires a disillusioned lawyer, Zoe Saldaña, to orchestrate a fake death so the drug lord can transition into a new life as a woman named Emilia Pérez. And turn into a good person. Emilia Pérez is suffering from Karla Sophia Gascón’s controversial xenophobic, racist, and antisemitic postings on social media. This is especially disappointing as she is the first openly transgender actor nominated for an Oscar. The film left me cold.
Wicked
Wicked takes us to the Land of Oz. Elphaba, a young woman with green skin forms a friendship with the popular Galinda. They encounter the Wizard of Oz, leading to a series of events that change destiny transforming them into the Wicked Witch of the West and Glinda the Good. I’ve seen the Broadway play and the film, both of which did nothing for me.
Concave
Conclave is filled with intrigue. The Pope is dead. Cardinals from all over the world will cast their votes in a secret election. One of them will become the world’s most powerful religious figure. Ambition, rivalry and enemies. It features one of our most remarkable actors, Ralph Fiennes, a three time nominee, a great screenplay, and a fine ensemble. Conclave claimed Best Film, Outstanding British Film, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Editing at BAFTA. It just won Best Ensemble at SAG.
The Brutalist
Bradley Corbet’s Brutalist is a 3 hour and 30 minute (with a 15 minute intermission) sweeping epic film that uses a style of architecture as a backdrop to an immigrant experience following World War II. It also shows us a tortured genius, and the difficultly of dealing with one. The critic’s reviews, the sweeping scope of the film, and its wins at the Golden Globes still make it a strong contender. The Brutalist earned the Golden Globe and BAFTA awards for both Corbet and Brody for the Best Director and Best Actor.
The Brutalist has been charged with the use of Artificial Intelligence. Adrian Brody who had to memorize Hungarian defends it saying, “There was no technology implemented that took work from anyone.” Director Corbet explained that the AI audio technology “was used in Hungarian language dialogue editing only, specifically to refine certain vowels and letters for accuracy. No English language was changed. Adrien and Felicity’s performances are completely their own”. Both A Complete UnKnown and Emilia Pérez used AI in post production.
A Complete UnKnown
A Complete Unknown is my favorite film of the year because it touched me personally. Because of delays Timothèe Chalamet had five and one half years to prepare in his triumphant performance honoring Bob Dylan and his music. From his first scene with Pete Seeger and Woody Guthrie he has us, in a role that could have draw a lot of skepticism. Many of the scenes didn’t happen that way in real life. But they could have. The relationships between the characters are authentic. Everyone was devoted to getting the music right. And they do. I don’t expect it to win.
I’m Still Here
In I’m Still Here, Fernanda Torres, in a remarkable performance, is forced to reinvent herself when her family is shattered by the violence of her husband “disappearing” during the tightening grip of a military dictatorship in Brazil, 1971. It’s Carnival in Rio De Janeiro but everything will stop for the Awards announcements. Everyone in
Brazil is rooting for this film and its lead actress. I think it could win Best International Film and a possibly Best Actress.
BEST PICTURE
Anora
The Brutalist *
Conclave
BEST DIRECTOR
Sean Baker - Anora
Sean Baker’s Anora is a gritty tale of a young Brooklyn exotic dancer who meets and impulsively marries the son of a Russian oligarch. The underworld Cinderella story comes undone when his parents set out to get the marriage annulled. It delivers an unexpected — but fitting — Hollywood ending.
Bradley Corbet - The Brutalist
Corbet has made it plain what a difficult time he had getting this independent film made. That Corbet made a sweeping epic film of this caliber for less than $10 million dollars and a little more than 30 shooting days is a bit of a miracle. The Brutalist has been nominated for 10 Oscars: Best Motion Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing, Best Original Score, Best Production Design, Best Original Screenplay. If Corbet triumphs, he stands to make history.
James Marigold - A Complete Unknown
Marigold is my favorite director for A Complete Unknown. I interviewed Elijah Wald, who wrote the book Dylan Goes Electric! (2015) which inspired the film. He revealed that Bob Dylan acquired the film rights in 2016, and Dylan approved James Marigold, and Timothèe Chalamet. Dylan did a table reading of the script with Marigold reading all the parts and stage directions, and Dylan reading his lines. He annotated the script, signed it and gave it to Marigold. Dylan requested Johnny Cash be added to the script, and the name of his Greenwich Village girlfriend , Sue Rotolo, be changed. It is a fine film, with a fine cast. Timothèe Chalamet’s outstanding performance honors Bob Dylan’s early days in New York leading up to Newport Folk Festival 1965. I don’t expect Marigold to win.
BEST DIRECTOR
Sean Baker (Anora)
Bradly Corbet (The Brutalist)
James Marigold (A Complete Unknown)*
BEST ACTOR
Adrian Brody - The Brutalist
Adrian Brody pulled ahead of the other contenders early on. Brody was 29, when he won his Oscar for The Pianist. He appears to be the favorite.
Ralph Fiennes - Concave
Ralph Fiennes is one of our finest actors in a wonderful role, with 3 previous Academy Award nominations.
Timothèe Chalamet - A Complete Unknown
Timothèe Chalamet has skyrocketed with his very special performance inhabiting the character of Bob Dylan authentically, and performing his songs live. One of Chalamet’s more unique narratives is his charisma, energy, and often unique activities promoting his film. He is the internet’s boyfriend. The largest body of Academy voters are the 170,000 members of SAG that just gave him best lead actor. It is a surprise, and a testament to the acting. He is 9 months younger than Adrian Brody was when he won his Oscar for Best Actor.
Coleman Domingo in Sing Sing, and Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice are remarkable actors giving fine performances.
BEST ACTOR
Adrian Brody (The Brutalist)
Timothèe Chalamet (A Complete Unknown *
Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
BEST ACTRESS
Demi Moore - The Substance
Demi Moore is fantastic in a meaningful yet wild and crazy horror movie. She should win an Oscar for both her Golden Globe and SAG speeches. She said that a producer told her she was a “popcorn actress.” She wasn’t capable of an award winning performance. She emotionally told us that she had internalized that judgment and almost quit acting altogether, until she received the script for The Substance. She has been an early favorite. The film is gruesome.
Mikey Madison - Anora
Moore’s major competition is Mikey Madison who is in almost every scene of Arona, demonstrating a wide range of acting and emotional depth. Madison won Best Actress at BAFTRA for her role in Anora.
Fernanda Torres - I’m Still Here
In 1999, Fernanda Montenegro became the first Brazilian Oscar nominee. She lost to Gwenyth Paltrow. Twenty five years later, her daughter, Fernanda Torres has been nominated for her stunning performance in I’m Still Here.
She plays Eunice Paiva, the wife of dissident politician Rubens Paiva, who was kidnapped and murdered by Brazil’s military dictatorship. She brings the film to life. The whole country of Brazil is rooting for her. Her Golden Globes win gave her a late boost.
BEST ACTRESS
Demi Moore (The Substance)
Mikey Madison (Anora)
Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) *
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Kieran Culkin
There seems to be no holding back for Kieran Culkin who plays the well meaning but problematic cousin on a journey to see his grandmother’s homeland in A Real Pain.
Edward Norton
My favorite is Edward Norton’s sympathetic creation of Pete Seeger and his live songs in A Complete Unknown. Honest, superb acting.
Yura Barisov
Yura Borisov is a critically acclaimed Russian actor whose intensity, emotional depth and fragility is a standout as Boris in Anora.
Guy Pearce
Guy Pearce is a beloved working actor stepping into the spotlight in a powerful performance in The Brutalist.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)*
Guy Pierce (The Brutalist)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Zoe Saldana
I may not have cared for Emilia Pérez, but there is always something of interest in a film. For me that is Zoe Saldana as Rita, the lawyer who helps the cartel boss to disappear and become the woman he always dreamed of becoming. She just won best supporting actress at SAG.
Monica Barbaro
My favorite is Monica Barbaro’s achievement in A Complete Unknown who performs the impossible task of bringing Joan Baez to life, and performing her songs live.
Wicked has it’s own audience. The favorites are Ariana Grande in Wicked and Zoe Saldana in Emilia Pérez. Isabella Rossellini is only in Conclave for about 10 minutes but she is a knock out. Felicity Jones contributes greatly as an actress to The Brutalist.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez)
Ariana Grande (Wicked)
Monica Barbaro (Complete Unknown) *
ADDITIONAL PREDICTIONS (And Favorites *)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora
A Real Pain
The Brutalist
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Concave
Sing Sing
A Complete Unknown *
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
I’m Still Here *
The Seed of the Sacred Fig *
Flow
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
No Other Land
Porcelain War *
Sugarcane
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Wild Robot
Wallace and Grommet: A Vengeance Most Foul *
Flow
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist *
Nosferatu
Dune: Part Two
BEST EDITING
The Brutalist *
Anora
Wicked
BEST COSTUME
Wicked
A Complete Unknown *
Nosferatu
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
The Substance *
Wicked
Nosferatu
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Brutalist
Wicked
Conclave
BEST SONG
El Mal (Emilia Pérez)
The Journey (The Six Double Eight)
Never Too Late (Elton John: Never Too Late) *
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Wicked
The Brutalist *
Dune: Part Two
BEST SOUND
Wicked
Dune: Part Two
A Complete Unknown *
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune: Part Two
Kingdom Planet of the Apes
Wicked *